How to identify value in your bets? That’s the big question. My friend, Alex Napier who operates the Best Bet Soccer website, has asked me to write this article to explain the concept of odds percentages, which can be a very powerful tool in identifying value in your bets. I’ll take up this point later in the article, but for now let’s clarify the way odds are calculated and how they affect the chances of success.
How does the Best Bet Soccer selection work? It might sound like a simple method, but it’s not really. The selection process takes into account the history of each football team, the home advantage, away advantage, the number of head to head meetings, promo deposit 50 bonus 30 to x5 the points they have earned against each other, the number of players involved in the teams, and the chances of a home win, away win or draw. The process is constantly being updated as more data comes in, and is based on those observation and analysis of the various factors involved. Some of the required data that are used are the number of bookings of each team each week, the number of bookings each player has made, the number of assists each team has scored against another, and the number of bookings from the referee league ranking. Other data such as the hypothetical non-handicap situation in a match between two underdogs, are also used. The attenuation of each team’s chances is determined by the odds spread, the probability of a win, and the history of the teams in the competition. The best team in the league for example may be given a handicap half point, the equivalent of half a goal, making their chances superior to their actual chances. The team with the handicap has to win by two clear goals.
BookingsThe booking process for football matches is the subject of a separate article. Basically each club has a squad of around twenty-one players. Therefore there are around forty players who may or may not play. These included three goalies, ten midfielders, nine forwards, three combatants between the sticks, and three keepers. Midfielders and strikers are not normally used in the same positions. Instead, they are used broadly to represent the team.
It’s not unusual for eighteen players to be included in the squad, with three goalies, three keepers and the titans between the penalty area, as the odds are very generous in the bet for this particular combination. Obviously the likelihood of three goalies rotating during the match is low, aside from the title defender. Therefore this makes the home win odds very favorable for the bettor.
escued from the startWith the title defender substituted, many teams can be expected to decrease their starting line up. This actually improves the odds for the home win odds, and the odds for the away win odds, and of course the odds for both home and away winnings are multiplied by the rate of the decrease in starting eleven. Obviously the odds for the match result are the sum of the odds on the two most likely outcomes, so in this case, a soccer bettor wins twice, as the sum of the home win and away win odds are increased.
inside and outside betsThis inside bet is placed in the betting exchange, typically in the scores and margins of the games. It is straightforward in that you pick the player you think will score the first goal of the game, or be the first to make a tackled and challenged in the tackle. Goalscorer or odds will be the number of goals scored by one player. Versus strikers you will have a high probability of the player scoring. If there are goal kicks you will score a lot more, so the odds for the match are high.
Another example would be in a match between two about division leaders, one playing the home win, and the other the away win. Unlike the Saturday match, the following morning the odds will have dropped considerably, because of the morning newspaper columnists to fall back to their old replicas of the match from the past three or four years, which do not reflect the current playing situation. So imagine the odds for the game are 3/5, that means for every dollar you bet, you will be receiving $96. If you think anybody from the starting 11 to be score the first goal in the match, you will have a profit of $56.30, but the odds of that happening are 1/1, so you only win $5.
TotalsThis is the simplest form of bet, you bet on the total number of goals, scored including the away win, by a team or a player, or both. The odds are calculated the same as in the other football betting categories.