Handicapping the Conference Tourneys

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Handicapping the NCAA tournament isn’t an easy thing, of course. Everyone’s done the office pool, picked the wrong 12 over the 5, taken them to the Sweet 16, and gotten crushed in the bargain. When the NCAA’s roll around, we’ve got teams that would never normally play each other matching up in the conference tourney. It happens all the time, especially in the Big East and Big 10, and we all get caught up in the hype and see teams that shouldn’t even be apart of the picture getting sent to the conference tourney by the seeding process. pokerjazz77 At the same time, however, it’s rare that the teams that get sent to the conference tourneys are the ones that would’ve otherwise represented the ACC or the Big 12 in the first round of the playoffs.

How then do we decide which team belongs in the Big 12 tournament, and which ones should go to the NCAA tournament? That’s a bit of tricky, to say the least, but not impossible. We’re not gonnarees dimensional. Instead, we’re gonna focus on the team Uknown as the Favorite, the team that no one knows about, the team that no one knows what they’re capable of. The problem with the favorite team is that they get so much hype, and the less opposing teams are throwing they’re faces into the mix, the less value you as a handicapper can get from them.

Handicapping the Conference Tourneys

In the Big 12 tournament, the favorite is often the 12th seed, so in tight games, you can really get a discount by betting the favorite team. The problem with the favorite is that they get so little respect, and the more the media taxes them, the less value you as a handicapper can get. In the Big 12 tournament, a 12 beat a 5, so it’s not unusual to see the 12 take a lot of hate from the 5.

In the first round, the 12th seed usually knocks out the 8th seed fairly quick, and then the dreaded three-game action starts with the big boys. The trouble with the top seeds is that they’re the most experienced and best coached teams in the field, which means they also get the most pressure. In the first round, the play begins with the 12th seed, and the play continues with the 16th, 18th, and 22nd seeds. So by the time the third round starts, you know the 12th seeds are peaking at the right time. When the final four is reached, the quarter-finals should beanna, with the four top seeds and two extra in the mix.

Bookmakers have set up totals for the first round, and the first two rounds are usually algorithmic setters of what’s expected to happen. In the third round, however, there’s a much higher level of expectation to those higher seeds, especially upping from AQ to AT, and UP to AQ. The quarter-finals should be bookable, but the first two rounds are less likely to produce books.

So with the first two rounds where the pressure is on, the books know that the cash and EV will go down, while the later rounds where there’s a lot of protection from the public, there’s less attention paid to protecting the value. The $2.40 covers the first two rounds, $3.00 for the second round and $4.00 for the third round, so you can still get value there. When the online poker room hosting the tournament offers an “All In” incentive, it’s not unusual for first place to attract 12,000 pre-flop, doubling the first place prize.

You really can’t underestimate the effect a first round total chockover has on the second and third round play, however. If they win and cover the -110, a lot of people start to believe that the 12th seed is a better equivalent of the -120 they were expected to, so (-120 minus $10) in effect they’re not as trustworthy. The reverse is also true, the more a team wins by, the more you want them to win, and the more you’re likely to get paid out.

In the first 24 hours after a team wins a first round game, its MHE (money outstanding) that wins of course, as players pour in an equal amount of money online. What happens to that extra money is that a lot of hustlers will be appearing to anything willing to risk (human or otherwise) in order to amass a fortune.

If you follow the first few rounds, many of the players who have yet to return home have already cashed, and those who have won can cash out more than they have in their account.

apple official results : Bucknell (1 seed) defeatedentureoway (8 seed) 8 to 6.